MARKET ANALYSIS OF COKING COAL PLANT: ERDENES TAVANTOLGOI JSC CASE STUDY

Abstract

This thesis assesses the market feasibility and strategic competitiveness of the proposed coking coal plant by Erdenes TavanTolgoi JSC (ETT), a major state-owned coal producer in Mongolia. The study analyzes global and regional coking coal demand trends, with a particular focus on China—ETT’s primary target market—and on emerging prospects in Japan and South Korea. Utilizing a combination of market research, scenario forecasting, and strategic risk analysis, the thesis evaluates ETT’s product quality, logistical advantages, competitive positioning, and long-term sustainability. The findings indicate that while global demand for coking coal is expected to peak in the mid-2021s and gradually decline, Asian markets will continue to provide short- to medium-term export opportunities. ETT’s coke blend complies with China’s Class II specifications and benefits from low-cost overland transport to inland steel hubs. Strategic analysis shows that ETT can strengthen its market position by leveraging infrastructure advantages, enhancing risk management practices, and diversifying exports to maintain competitiveness. The study concludes that the planned coke plant is economically viable and can support Mongolia’s broader goals of industrial diversification and value-added export development.